Year 3 Mathematics · AC9M3P01

Identify practical activities and everyday events involving chance

identify practical activities and everyday events involving chance; describe possible outcomes and events as ‘likely’ or ‘unlikely’ and identify some events as ‘certain’…

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Learning goalsSay it simply

Chance language describes how possible an event is. Certain events must happen, impossible events cannot happen, and likely or unlikely events depend on the situation.

Learning routine: List outcomes → Check conditions → Place on chance scale → Explain evidence

Success looks like

  • Identify chance events
  • List outcomes
  • Use certain/impossible
  • Use likely/unlikely
  • Explain reasoning

Success criteria:

  • Identify chance events
  • List outcomes
  • Use certain/impossible
  • Use likely/unlikely
  • Explain reasoning
Key conceptTeach from the board

Key idea: Chance language describes how possible an event is. Certain events must happen, impossible events cannot happen, and likely or unlikely events depend on the situation.

Learning routine: List outcomes → Check conditions → Place on chance scale → Explain evidence

outcome
a possible result of a chance event
likely
more likely to happen than not happen
impossible
an event that cannot happen
Clean visual examplesOne-page board

Clean one-page examples

AC9M3P01 - Identify practical activities and everyday events involving chance; describe possible outcomes and events as ‘likely’ or ‘unlikely’ and identify some events as ‘certain’ or ‘impossible’ explaining reasoning
Example 1

impossible unlikely even chance likely certain

Example 2

red × 6 blue × 2 green × 0

Example 3

sun rises tomorrow roll a 7 on standard die rain today pick red from red-only bag

Example 4

Use a chance scale impossible unlikely even chance likely certain Reasoning must use the possible outcomes or known conditions. Read every label and identify what each quantity or feature represents. Describe the relationship shown by the model. Check that the conclusion answers the original question.

Curriculum examplesCopied content

The content description and elaborations below show the curriculum ideas taught in this unit. Items marked as teaching context support lesson planning.

  • Content description: identify practical activities and everyday events involving chance; describe possible outcomes and events as ‘likely’ or ‘unlikely’ and identify some events as ‘certain’ or ‘impossible’ explaining reasoning
  • E1: predicting what could happen next in practical activities that involve an element of chance, considering possible outcomes and using terms such as “likely” or “unlikely” to explain their predictions
  • E2: classifying a list of everyday events or sorting a set of event cards according to how likely they are to happen, using the language of chance and giving reasons for classifications; discussing how impossible outcomes cannot ever happen, uncertain outcomes are affected by chance as they may or may not happen whereas certain events must always happen, so they are not affected by chance
  • E3: making predictions and testing what would happen; for example, if 10 names were put in a box, and names were then drawn out one at a time and replaced after each selection, discussing how likely it would be after 10 selections that all 10 names were drawn from the box or that one name was drawn multiple times
  • E4: role-playing being a chatbot or virtual assistant responding to a user about the likelihood of events; for example, using preset questions on cards relating to the likelihood of events, role-playing in pairs responding as a virtual assistant, giving reasons for their response

Australian, Victorian and NSW alignment retained from the previous page

RegionCurriculumClosest mapping
AustraliaAustralian Curriculum v9.0AC9M3P01 — identify practical activities and everyday events involving chance; describe possible outcomes and events as ‘likely’ or ‘unlikely’ and identify some events as ‘certain’ or ‘impossible’ explaining reasoning
VictoriaVictorian Curriculum F-10Year 3 Maths: closest match in Probability. Use this page as a VIC-aligned practice and worksheet reference.
NSWNSW CurriculumStage 2 Maths: closest content focus for Identify practical activities and everyday events involving chance; describe possible outcomes and events as ‘likely’ or ‘unlikely’ and identify some events as ‘certain’ or ‘impossible’ explaining reasoning and related outcomes.
Questions and answersWith answers
What is the big idea in this topic?
Chance language describes how possible an event is. Certain events must happen, impossible events cannot happen, and likely or unlikely events depend on the situation.
What routine should I use?
List outcomes → Check conditions → Place on chance scale → Explain evidence
How do I know I am ready to move on?
You can identify chance events, list outcomes, use certain/impossible, use likely/unlikely, explain reasoning and explain how your model or calculation supports the answer.
Practice and reviewReady for practice
  • Likely means certain — Likely events can still fail to occur.
  • Impossible based on opinion — Check the actual possible outcomes.
  • No conditions stated — Chance can change when the situation changes.

  1. List the possible outcomes of a spinner labelled A, A, A and B, then describe which letter is likely.

  2. A student says rain tomorrow is impossible because it is sunny now. Explain why the claim is too strong.

Review hint: Follow the routine “List outcomes → Check conditions → Place on chance scale → Explain evidence” and use the worked model to check whether your answer is reasonable.

Curriculum alignmentStart here

Chance language describes how possible an event is. Certain events must happen, impossible events cannot happen, and likely or unlikely events depend on the situation.

Learning routine: List outcomes → Check conditions → Place on chance scale → Explain evidence

Success looks like

  • Identify chance events
  • List outcomes
  • Use certain/impossible
  • Use likely/unlikely
  • Explain reasoning

Success criteria:

  • Identify chance events
  • List outcomes
  • Use certain/impossible
  • Use likely/unlikely
  • Explain reasoning
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