AC9M3P02: Conduct repeated chance experiments; identify and describe possible outcomes, record the results, recognise and discuss the variation

Repeated chance experiments produce results that can vary. More trials give more evidence about patterns, but exact counts are not guaranteed.

Learning routine: List outcomes → Predict → Repeat trials → Tally → Compare results → Discuss variation

Success looks like

• Identify outcomes
• Conduct repeated trials
• Record frequencies
• Compare sets
• Discuss variation

Success criteria:

• Identify outcomes
• Conduct repeated trials
• Record frequencies
• Compare sets
• Discuss variation

Students should use everyday chance language such as impossible, possible and certain, and be able to record outcomes from a simple chance event. Emphasise that one result does not determine what must happen next.

Key idea: Repeated chance experiments produce results that can vary. More trials give more evidence about patterns, but exact counts are not guaranteed.

Learning routine: List outcomes → Predict → Repeat trials → Tally → Compare results → Discuss variation

chance experiment

a repeatable action with an uncertain result

trial

one performance of a chance experiment

variation

differences in results between repeated sets of trials

What is the big idea in this topic?

Repeated chance experiments produce results that can vary. More trials give more evidence about patterns, but exact counts are not guaranteed.

What routine should I use?

List outcomes → Predict → Repeat trials → Tally → Compare results → Discuss variation

How do I know I am ready to move on?

You can identify outcomes, conduct repeated trials, record frequencies, compare sets, discuss variation and explain how your model or calculation supports the answer.

• Expecting perfect equality — Equal chances do not guarantee equal results in a small trial.
• Changing the device — Keep the experiment conditions consistent.
• Recording from memory — Tally each trial immediately.

1. What are the possible outcomes of a coin toss?

   • heads and tails
   • 1 to 6
   • red only
   • certain and impossible

2. Complete the total.

   Prompt: 12 heads and 8 tails make □ trials.

3. Why can two sets of 20 coin tosses differ?

   • chance results vary
   • one set must be fake
   • coins have no outcomes
   • 20 always means equal

4. Describe how to record a 30-spin experiment accurately.

5. Match the term to its meaning.

   Match: trial • frequency • variation ↔ difference across results • one performance of the experiment • number of times an outcome occurs

6. Complete the comparison.

   Prompt: Set A has 12 red and Set B has 9 red, a difference of □.

1. Plan a repeated chance experiment with at least three outcomes and a table for recording 50 trials.

2. Compare small-sample and class-combined results and explain how the amount of data affects confidence.

Explain the reasoning, not only the final answer.

1. Explain why 11 heads and 9 tails does not prove the coin is unfair.

2. A student predicts 10 heads and stops recording after 10 heads occur. Explain why the procedure is unfair.

Review hint: Follow the routine “List outcomes → Predict → Repeat trials → Tally → Compare results → Discuss variation” and use the worked model to check whether your answer is reasonable.

• I can identify outcomes.
• I can conduct repeated trials.
• I can record frequencies.
• I can compare sets.
• I can discuss variation.

Quick check: List coin outcomes. • Why repeat trials? • What is variation?

Read the topic guide and use the teacher slide for instruction. Students can then use the worksheet for written work, open Practice for supported feedback, or take the Test when they are ready.

The content description and elaborations below show the curriculum ideas taught in this unit. Items marked as teaching context support lesson planning.

• Content description: conduct repeated chance experiments; identify and describe possible outcomes, record the results, recognise and discuss the variation
• E1: identifying the possible outcomes of a chance experiment, creating a tally chart to record results, carrying out a few trials and tallying the results for each trial; responding to the questions: “How did your results vary for each trial?” and “How do the results vary across the class?”
• E2: conducting repeated trials of chance experiments such as tossing a coin, throwing a dice, drawing a coloured or numbered ball from a bag, using a coloured spinner with equal partitions, and identifying the variation in the number of heads/fives/reds between trials
• E3: discussing how the process of conducting repeated chance experiments is crucial in the training of artificial intelligence applications like recommendation systems; for example, if they were building a recommendation system for an online shopping website, they could conduct repeated experiments by tracking user interactions over time

Australian, Victorian and NSW alignment retained from the previous page

• Australian Curriculum Version 9.0 — ACARA
• Victorian Curriculum — VCAA
• NSW Curriculum — NESA

Official curriculum sites are the source of record.

• AC9M3P01 — Chance in Everyday Events
• AC9M3SP01 — Classifying Objects by Features and Uses
• All Year 3 Mathematics topics

Curriculum equivalents for Conduct repeated chance experiments; identify and describe possible outcomes, record...

Mapped skill: conduct repeated chance experiments; identify and describe possible outcomes, record the results, recognise and discuss the variation

These references identify matching or closely related learning. Curriculum sequence, terminology and depth vary, so teachers should use the mapped skill and lesson difficulty to confirm suitability.

Australian Curriculum v9.0 is the canonical source for this SkillrHub lesson. Victoria and NSW entries name the closest published state codes or outcomes; international entries are planning references rather than claims of identical curricula.