AC9M3P01: Identify practical activities and everyday events involving chance; describe possible outcomes and events as ‘likely’ or ‘unlikely’ and identify some events as ‘certain’ or ‘impossible’ explaining reasoning

Chance language describes how possible an event is. Certain events must happen, impossible events cannot happen, and likely or unlikely events depend on the situation.

Learning routine: List outcomes → Check conditions → Place on chance scale → Explain evidence

Success looks like

• Identify chance events
• List outcomes
• Use certain/impossible
• Use likely/unlikely
• Explain reasoning

Success criteria:

• Identify chance events
• List outcomes
• Use certain/impossible
• Use likely/unlikely
• Explain reasoning

Students should use everyday chance language such as impossible, possible and certain, and be able to record outcomes from a simple chance event. Emphasise that one result does not determine what must happen next.

Key idea: Chance language describes how possible an event is. Certain events must happen, impossible events cannot happen, and likely or unlikely events depend on the situation.

Learning routine: List outcomes → Check conditions → Place on chance scale → Explain evidence

outcome

a possible result of a chance event

likely

more likely to happen than not happen

impossible

an event that cannot happen

What is the big idea in this topic?

Chance language describes how possible an event is. Certain events must happen, impossible events cannot happen, and likely or unlikely events depend on the situation.

What routine should I use?

List outcomes → Check conditions → Place on chance scale → Explain evidence

How do I know I am ready to move on?

You can identify chance events, list outcomes, use certain/impossible, use likely/unlikely, explain reasoning and explain how your model or calculation supports the answer.

• Likely means certain — Likely events can still fail to occur.
• Impossible based on opinion — Check the actual possible outcomes.
• No conditions stated — Chance can change when the situation changes.

1. Which event is impossible on a standard six-sided die?

   • rolling 7
   • rolling 3
   • rolling an even number
   • rolling less than 6

2. Complete the chance word.

   Prompt: An event that must happen is □.

3. A bag has 6 red and 2 blue counters. Which colour is more likely?

   • red
   • blue
   • both impossible
   • green

4. Explain the difference between unlikely and impossible.

5. Match the event to the chance word.

   Match: Sun rises tomorrow • roll 9 on a standard die • pick blue from 9 red and 1 blue ↔ unlikely • certain • impossible

6. Complete the reasoning.

   Prompt: A green outcome is impossible when there are □ green counters.

1. Create three different chance devices where the same outcome is certain, likely and unlikely.

2. Design a chance scale with five everyday events and justify every placement using conditions.

Explain the reasoning, not only the final answer.

1. List the possible outcomes of a spinner labelled A, A, A and B, then describe which letter is likely.

2. A student says rain tomorrow is impossible because it is sunny now. Explain why the claim is too strong.

Review hint: Follow the routine “List outcomes → Check conditions → Place on chance scale → Explain evidence” and use the worked model to check whether your answer is reasonable.

• I can identify chance events.
• I can list outcomes.
• I can use certain/impossible.
• I can use likely/unlikely.
• I can explain reasoning.

Quick check: Give a certain event. • Give an impossible die outcome. • Which colour is likely in 6 red and 2 blue?

Read the topic guide and use the teacher slide for instruction. Students can then use the worksheet for written work, open Practice for supported feedback, or take the Test when they are ready.

The content description and elaborations below show the curriculum ideas taught in this unit. Items marked as teaching context support lesson planning.

• Content description: identify practical activities and everyday events involving chance; describe possible outcomes and events as ‘likely’ or ‘unlikely’ and identify some events as ‘certain’ or ‘impossible’ explaining reasoning
• E1: predicting what could happen next in practical activities that involve an element of chance, considering possible outcomes and using terms such as “likely” or “unlikely” to explain their predictions
• E2: classifying a list of everyday events or sorting a set of event cards according to how likely they are to happen, using the language of chance and giving reasons for classifications; discussing how impossible outcomes cannot ever happen, uncertain outcomes are affected by chance as they may or may not happen whereas certain events must always happen, so they are not affected by chance
• E3: making predictions and testing what would happen; for example, if 10 names were put in a box, and names were then drawn out one at a time and replaced after each selection, discussing how likely it would be after 10 selections that all 10 names were drawn from the box or that one name was drawn multiple times
• E4: role-playing being a chatbot or virtual assistant responding to a user about the likelihood of events; for example, using preset questions on cards relating to the likelihood of events, role-playing in pairs responding as a virtual assistant, giving reasons for their response

Australian, Victorian and NSW alignment retained from the previous page

• Australian Curriculum Version 9.0 — ACARA
• Victorian Curriculum — VCAA
• NSW Curriculum — NESA

Official curriculum sites are the source of record.

• AC9M3N07 — Number Algorithms and Patterns
• AC9M3P02 — Repeated Chance Experiments
• All Year 3 Mathematics topics

Curriculum equivalents for Practical activities and everyday events involving chance; describe possible outcomes...

Mapped skill: identify practical activities and everyday events involving chance; describe possible outcomes and events as ‘likely’ or ‘unlikely’ and identify some events as ‘certain’ or ‘impossible’ explaining reasoning

These references identify matching or closely related learning. Curriculum sequence, terminology and depth vary, so teachers should use the mapped skill and lesson difficulty to confirm suitability.

Australian Curriculum v9.0 is the canonical source for this SkillrHub lesson. Victoria and NSW entries name the closest published state codes or outcomes; international entries are planning references rather than claims of identical curricula.