Year 10 Mathematics · AC9M10A04

Growth, Decay and Mathematical Modelling

A model is more than a formula. Learn to formulate a real problem, choose between linear, quadratic and exponential models, calculate and interpret predictions, test…

Ready to project and teach

Key conceptTeach from the board

Example 1 — identify a linear model

Values 12, 17, 22, 27 have constant difference +5. A linear rule is appropriate for this pattern.

Example 2 — identify a quadratic model

Values 2, 7, 16, 29 have first differences 5, 9, 13 and constant second difference 4. This is evidence of a quadratic relation.

Example 3 — identify an exponential model

Values 80, 96, 115.2, 138.24 multiply by 1.2. This represents 20% growth per interval, so an exponential model is appropriate.

Example 4 — compound interest

$5000 earns 4% p.a. compounded annually for 3 years. A=5000(1.04)³=$5624.32.

Interpretation: under the stated fixed-rate/no-transaction assumptions, the balance after 3 annual compounding periods is $5624.32.

Example 5 — depreciation

A $24,000 asset loses 15% of its current value each year. It retains 85%, so V=24000(0.85)ᵗ. After 2 years: $17,340.

Example 6 — compare linear and exponential change

Start at 100. Model L adds 20 per year: L=100+20t. Model E grows 20% per year: E=100(1.2)ᵗ. At t=5, L=200 while E≈248.83. Equal-looking early change does not imply equal long-term behaviour.

Example 7 — threshold and whole periods

P=200(1.15)ᵗ. At t=4, P≈349.8; at t=5, P≈402.3. If the question asks when P first exceeds 400 at a whole period, the answer is 5 periods.

Example 8 — half-life model

If a quantity halves every 10 years, Q=Q₀(1/2)^(t/10). After 30 years, three half-lives have passed, so Q=Q₀/8.

Example 9 — model selection from data

A table has outputs 4, 9, 16, 25 for consecutive inputs 1,2,3,4. First differences are 5,7,9 and second differences are 2, so a quadratic model is indicated. Calling it exponential merely because growth accelerates would be incorrect.

Example 10 — critique extrapolation

A wildlife model P=600(1.08)ᵗ assumes 8% growth indefinitely. Habitat capacity, food, disease and management can change the rate. The model may be useful over an evidence-supported interval but unreliable far beyond it.

Worked examplesWe do

Worked examples

AC9M10A04 - Growth, Decay and Mathematical Modelling
Example 1

Example 1 — identify a linear model Values 12, 17, 22, 27 have constant difference +5. A linear rule is appropriate for this pattern.

Example 2

Example 2 — identify a quadratic model Values 2, 7, 16, 29 have first differences 5, 9, 13 and constant second difference 4. This is evidence of a quadratic relation.

Example 3

Example 3 — identify an exponential model Values 80, 96, 115.2, 138.24 multiply by 1.2. This represents 20% growth per interval, so an exponential model is appropriate.

Example 4

Example 4 — compound interest $5000 earns 4% p.a. compounded annually for 3 years. A=5000(1.04)³= $5624.32 . Interpretation: under the stated fixed-rate/no-transaction assumptions, the balance after 3 annual compounding periods is $5624.32.

Curriculum examplesCopied content

Australian Curriculum:AC9M10A04, Year 10 Algebra — mathematical modelling of growth and decay, including financial contexts, with selection of linear, quadratic or exponential models and evaluation/reporting of assumptions, methods and findings.

Victoria:VC2M10A15, Level 10 Algebra is a very strong alignment. It covers modelling inverse proportion, growth and decay including financial contexts, choosing linear/quadratic/exponential models, interpreting solutions and evaluating/modifying models. The Victorian descriptor contains some additional inverse-proportion scope not required by this Australian lesson.

NSW: Stage 5 distributes the lesson across outcomes rather than one equivalent. MA5-FIN-C-02 covers compound interest and depreciation. MA5-NLI-C-01 and MA5-NLI-C-02 support algebraic/graphical exponential relationships and curve features. MAO-WM-01 supports reasoning, technique choice and communication. Relevant Path content can extend the modelling where a school's program requires it.

Alignment explanation: Financial examples directly support the Australian modelling descriptor, Victorian A15 and NSW finance outcome. Model selection and growth/decay comparisons align strongly with Australian/Victorian expectations and NSW non-linear relationships. The evaluation sections deliberately teach assumptions and limitations because modelling is not complete when the numerical calculation ends.

Lesson componentAustralian CurriculumVictoriaNSW
Choose linear/quadratic/exponential modelAC9M10A04VC2M10A15MA5-NLI-C-01/C-02 supporting
Compound interest/depreciationAC9M10A04VC2M10A15MA5-FIN-C-02
Growth and decayAC9M10A04VC2M10A15MA5-NLI-C-01/C-02
Interpret/evaluate/modify/reportAC9M10A04 + proficiencyVC2M10A15MAO-WM-01 + relevant content outcomes
Questions and answersWith answers
What makes a model linear?
A constant additive change over equal input intervals.
What makes a model exponential?
A constant multiplicative ratio or percentage change over equal intervals.
How can a table suggest a quadratic model?
For equally spaced inputs, constant second differences are a key indicator.
What is extrapolation?
Using a model beyond the range of observed data. It usually carries more risk than interpolation.
Why state assumptions?
They define the conditions under which the model's reasoning is intended to apply.
When should a model be modified?
When evidence, constraints or changing conditions show its assumptions or predictions are no longer adequate.
Practice and reviewReady for practice
  • “A curved graph means exponential.” Use differences, ratios and context to choose the family.
  • “6% growth means multiply by 0.06.” Growth multiplier is 1.06; 0.06 represents only the increase.
  • “The model is the real world.” A model is a simplified representation built on assumptions.
  • “A good fit now guarantees a good long-term forecast.” Extrapolation can fail when conditions change.
  • “A calculation alone completes a modelling question.” Interpretation, evaluation and communication are part of the descriptor.
  • “All solutions make sense.” Context may rule out negative time, fractional objects or values outside a realistic domain.
Curriculum alignmentStart here
Teach & ExplainTeaching slides and samples

Teach this topic step by step

Explore optional teaching slide packs for classroom lessons and explanations at home.

Browse Teach & Explain · Browse Print & Go

Teachers: follow SkillrHub on TPT, then email us to request a free sample before buying. Include the year, subject and topic or curriculum code.

Request a free sample

After trying the sample, honest feedback is welcome. A TPT review is optional, where available, and does not need to be positive.